Instability in Ecuador

In mid-October 2010, Ecuador’s political vulnerability was once again highlighted as disgruntled police held President Rafael Correa “practically captive,” wrecking havoc in the nation of 14.5 million people. On September 30^th, Ecuadorian police protested against salary cuts passed in Congress by overtaking barracks and shutting down airports. The initial pay cuts were designed to reduce the nation’s $3.5 billion budget deficit. President Correa tried to quell the protests by directly addressing the officers, but only sparked greater resistance by speaking angrily. Police officers responded by throwing tear-gas and physically assaulting the president, who was then taken to the local police hospital. The hospital was soon surrounded by Correa’s adversaries. Ecuadorian military personnel thus had to storm the hospital to rescue the President, resulting in a clash between the military and police forces. Upon his release, Correa declared a state of emergency, placing the military in control of basic law enforcement.

The conflict, which President Correa declared as “an attempt at a coup d’état” signals Ecuador’s relative instability. Prior to Rafael Correa’s election in 2006, Ecuador went through eight different presidencies in 15 years. Despite such political volatility, Ecuador seemed to becoming more stable after it gained a new constitution in September 2008. While opponents had criticized the proposed constitution for increasing presidential power, it was approved in a national referendum with 65 percent of the vote. The new constitution also allowed President Correa to run for another two terms. In 2009, shortly after his victory on the constitution, President Correa was easily reelected – the first presidential win in 30 years that did not require a run-off election. Correa’s popularity, some assert, has led him to act arrogantly at times. At one point during his confrontation with the police, Correa challenged the dissenters to kill him as he stood before them.

Correa’s leftist views and ties with Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez have polarized the nation, and the split is likely to grow as he makes accusations about those involved in the police revolt. Correa maintains the police revolt is the work of former President Lucio Gutierrez of the Patriotic Society Party (PSP). Gutierrez was forced out in 2005, “following massive protests in response to his attempt to overhaul the Supreme Court.” Gutierrez, however, maintains his innocence, and no charges have been brought against him. Furthermore, President Correa even asserted elements within the extreme right in the U.S. may have helped financed the rebellion. Such accusations are likely to further increase the wedge between Correa and his political opponents.

Other Ecuadorian opposition leaders have united in support of Correa. Jaime Nebot, the mayor of Guayaquil, Ecuador’s largest and richest city, voiced his support for the president. Nebot, however, has become Correa’s most prominent opponent in recent years. He has a 90% popularity rating in Guayaquil, and he is largely credited with helping the city become “a model of urban renewal.” Highly vocal, Nebot has in previous years led anti-Correa protests. Prior to the passage of the new constitution, he was quoted as saying, "If the government does something good I do not oppose that but if they seek to destroy Guayaquil and if the president wants to become an emperor ... then I will fiercely oppose that.” The diverging views between Ecuador’s best-known political figures indicates the country’s main political division, that which separates the coastal city of Guayaquil, the business hub of the nation, and the highland capital Quito, where the President’s palace is located. Nebot’s support for Correa in the recent weeks probably indicates his desire to maintain stability so that business can continue to function smoothly.

Rafael Correa has capitalized on the unrest by garnering a wave of support. His popularity is likely to rise in the short-term, and he has already vowed to use the events to further strengthen his presidency. He recently promised to “deepen and radicalize the citizen’s revolution.” If successful in this endeavor, Correa may try to link Ecuador more closely to Venezuela.