Tonga: A Bright Tropical Future?

Few people can place the archipelagic nation of Tonga on a world map, but this little country merits notice. A long history of successful public education puts the Kingdom of Tonga near the top of the world educational chart with a nearly 99 per cent literacy rate. Universal access to health care and other public welfare programs make Tonga seem superficially like a modern socialist state. Yet in 2007 Tonga was listed by Transparency International as one of the most corrupt countries, with a lower ranking than turbulent Afghanistan, Chad, and Sudan. But with recent governmental overhaul, Tonga is at last making progress here as well. As a result, we might be seeing a true political and economic success story in the making.

In September 2006, King Taufa'ahau Tupou IV died at the age of 88, an event that set in motion a host of changes that bode well for the country's economic future and the well-being of it's citizens. Late in his 41 year reign, the former king was embattled by an investment scandals with his court jester, press censorship, and striking state workers, sparking a public backlash against royal authority. Jesse Bogdonoff, the former official court jester and banker, mismanaged or siphoned off approximately $20m of the Tonga Trust Fund, finally settling the legal dispute in 2004. In May 2008, the current King, George Tupou V, relinquished most of his position's powers, excepting judicial oversight of the courts. As he explained in a BBC interview: “We've just authorized an independent commission to go through the laws and see which laws have to be amended...and the [answer] appears to be to keep a unicameral chamber and to increase substantially the number of people's representatives who would then...form a government.”

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/7535950.stm

On November 25^th 2010, Tonga will be holding its first elections as a newly democratized constitutional monarchy. The parliament will be made up of 26 seats, with a specific number of seats for each island region. 17 of the candidates will be popularly elected MPs, while 9 nobles will be selected from among the royal line. This popularly elected majority is a vast increase from the 2008 parliament, which had only 9 elected officials out of 31 seats. So far, election preparations seem to be running smoothly, with over 147 candidates contending for office. A huge voter registration campaign is underway, and boasts an electorate of some 40,000 individuals (the total population in Tonga in only 104,000).

Tonga's unique geography has led to wide economic disparities between the main island of Tongatapu and the poorer, more rural outlying island chains. The Ha'apai region has an estimated per capita GDP 40% lower than the national average. Huge transportation costs for exporting agricultural products and importing industrial goods and fuel exacerbate poverty levels, and with little historical political representation, there has been no movement towards better infrastructure or transportation systems.

How will this shift to a largely democratic state affect Tonga's future? Land reform, women's rights and regional economic discrepancies will have a much better chance at being addressed by an elected government not beholden to private interests. With more geographically fair representation now ensured in parliament, the Tongatapu-dominated economy will not be able to continue discriminating against the outer island chains of Vava'u and Ha'apai. The current economic policies of accruing more foreign aid and government debt will likely continue ias the new government attempts to jump-start growth. With a compounded average annual GDP growth rate of 1% over the past 5 years (compared to Samoa at 4.6%, Vanuatu at 6.8%), Tonga has a lot of unrealized potential. Most recently, the World Bank announced a $50 million grant to promote infrastructure, mitigate high oil prices, and for tsunami recovery, which amounts to 18 percent of Tonga's 2009 GDP.

As the country has little electoral history, it is difficult to predict the efficacy of Tonga's new government, but Tongans should be heartened by their newfound power. Recent political forums have covered the spectrum of local issues, and we will almost certainly see significant changes take place in the very near future.