Yemen: A Country Running Dry

In the aftermath of the failed October 29^th cargo plane bombings by Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, much of the international world’s attention has been shifted to Yemen, which has become a refuge for terrorism and by most accounts is heading towards state failure. Lost in the international scrutiny and condemnation of Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh’s inability to prevent such attacks, are two key factors that will increasingly limit Yemen’s ability to combat such organizations as Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula: its rapidly diminishing oil reserves and the gross over exploitation of its potable water supplies.

By nearly all measures, Yemen is the poorest nation in the Middle East. According to the 2009 International Monetary Fund’s rankings, it ranks 140^th on the global list of per capita Gross Domestic Product, with only 1,061 dollars per citizen per year. Unlike its neighboring states of Saudi Arabia and Oman, Yemen has limited reserves of fossil fuels. Yemen does possess some proven oil reserves, but according to a U.S. Energy Information Administration report, exploitation of its oilfields peaked in 2001 at 440,00 barrels per day and has been in steady decline ever since The expected depletion date is 2017.

Although it does not possess nearly as much oil as compared to its neighbors on the Arabian Peninsula, the Yemeni central government is equally as reliant on oil revenues.According to the 2010 CIA Factbook, oil accounts for 70% of the government’s revenue and 25% of the country’s GDP as a whole. Although the pro-western central Yemeni government under President Saleh maintains full control only over the capital city of Sana’a and its environs, such control is directly tied to the revenue received from oil production. As Yemeni fossil fuel production continues to decline, the central government’s revenue declines apace. It is therefore a near certainty that the government will be forced to reduce its military and counter-terrorism budget. Unless foreign countries dramatically increase their military aid to Yemen in the near future, the Sana’a government will become increasingly unable to fund counter-terrorist operations within the country’s rural areas, creating a haven for such groups as Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula.

An equally severe problem faced by the government of Yemen is the growing scarcity of water, especially around Sana’a. According to a February 2010 Reuters Article, Yemen’s capital may become the first capital city in the world to run out of water. Sana’a has experienced a rapid population boom over the last two decades, its population more than doubling to reach the current level of two million. This population explosion has resulted in the gross over-exploitation of the region’s already limited potable water supply. This population growth,coupled with the massive amount of water devoted to qat (a water-demanding, mildly narcotic plant that is a staple of Yemini culture) has resulted in the depletion of local aquifers.According to one report, most wells in the Sana’a area must now be drilled nearly a kilometer deep merely to reach the ever-receding water table, resulting in ever increasing costs. And as Sana’a and Yemen as a whole continue to experience rapid population growth, and as qat cultivation and consumption increase, the problem is worsening. Most estimates hold that unless demand is drastically lowered and sustainable water practices are enacted, Sana’a will fully deplete its local aquifers within the next fifteen years, creating millions of “water refugees” who could potentially overwhelm neighboring countries.

The government of Yemen must address these two fast-approaching crises of oil depletion and ground water depletion in order to stave off collapse, much less to effectively combat extremist organizations. Both problems are immensely challenging, and unless the international community dramatically increases its support of Yemen, this strategically important nation is likely headed towards a future of chaos and instability.