Guineans are holding their breath as they await the Supreme Court’s decision on the victor of the West African country’s November 7th presidential run-off, the first democratic election since the country’s independence from France in 1958. On November 15th, the National Independent Electoral Commission announced that Mr. Alpha Condé, the leader of the opposition RPG (Rally of the Guinean People) party had defeated Cellou Dalein Diallo, former Prime Minister and leader of the UFDG (Union of Democratic Forces of Guinea) party 52.5 to 47.5%. The announcement prompted an outbreak of ethnic violence between Condé’s largely Malinké and Susu supporters and Diallo’s Peul (known in English-speaking parts of west Africa as Fula or Fulani) across the country, resulting in the army’s declaration of a “state of emergency” until the Court releases its verdict.
Although neither Condé nor Diallo officially appealed to any specific group, ethnic lines were clearly drawn during the campaign. In the first election, Diallo obtained 44% of the vote, capturing the vast majority of the Peul vote. In the run-offs, he gained a valuable ally in the third-placed candidate Sidya Toure (13.6%), a popular Malinké politician and former Prime Minister. However, Diallo only gained an additional 3.5% percent of votes in the run-offs, which suggests that the majority of Toure’s Malinké supporters refused to align themselves with the Peul Diallo and instead voted for the Malinké Condé. The Peul are the largest of Guinea’s 24 ethnic groups, comprising nearly 40% of the population, in comparison to the Malinké (30%) and the Soussou (20%).
Post-election skirmishes have mostly occurred within Peul pockets of Conakry, the country’s capital, and have been perpetrated by the mainly Malinké police force. The numbers of Peul detained and imprisoned suggest a disproportionate and ethnically motivated response to the violence by security forces. Eyewitness accounts of brutality against Peul and the comparative peacefulness within Malinké neighborhoods point to the discriminatory nature of the police’s enforcement of the state of emergency. As Mohammed Jalloh of the International Crisis Group remarked: “For the first time you have a real election where two people from different ethnic groups are competing. That is the most worrying thing. [Ethnic violence] is unusual in Guinea, as it is usually the people against the state.”
Ethnic division is particularly worrisome given the potential domino effect of violence in the region. Guinea is bordered by notoriously unstable Sierra Leone and Liberia, countries recovering from civil wars fueled by ethnic divisions. For decades, Guinea served as a counterpoint to these two nations, with Peul and Malinké coexisting peacefully within its borders. But the region as a whole is prone to instability, and in the 1990s conflicts among rebel groups, warlords, and youth gangs in Sierra Leone and Liberia spilled over into Guinea, causing domestic instability. Recent reports indicate that Guinea’s disputed election has already sparked clashes between the Fula (Peul) and Mandinko (Malinké) in Sierra Leone, where 20 people were arrested in the town of Kenema for rioting. Furthermore, Sierra Leone’s National Security Coordinator Christopher John has sent 350 military and police personnel to border areas, stating that: “We are very much concerned because of all the proximity…Any violence occurring in Guinea is of grave concern to us because of our bilateral relations, both economic, social and the politics that are across the borders.” In addition, Guinea’s ruling junta announced on Saturday, November 27 that they had closed the country’s land, sea, air and river borders in response to the imminent Supreme Court ruling.
But ethnic violence is not the country’s only concern. Despite being the world’s leading exporter of bauxite (aluminum ore), Guinea nonetheless ranks 156 out of 169 on the United Nation’s Human Development Index. It has been suffered under a series of brutal and rapacious dictators since its 1958 independence. Under the country’s first ruler, Ahmed Sékou Touré, thousands were tortured and disappeared. Sékou’s successor, Lansana Conté, took control in a coup d’etat and clung to power with the help of the military for twenty-four repressive years. Upon Conté’s death in 2008, Moussa Dadis Camara seized control in a military take-over.
On September 28, 2009, Camara’s junta ordered its soldiers to attack the 50,000 protestors who had gathered at a rally in Conakry to protest any attempt by Camara to become President. The soldiers went on a notorious rampage of rape, mutilation and murder. In what Human Rights Watch described as an act of premeditation, the elite presidential guard, known as the “red berets” (see photo below) surrounded and blockaded the stadium where the rally took place, then stormed and fired until they ran out of bullets, killing at least 150 people and carrying out gang rapes. The September massacre was also ethnically motivated, as the junta primarily targeted Peul protestors. With a reputation for indiscipline, human rights abuse, insubordination, and criminality, the military continues to pose a serious threat to democratic civilian rule in Guinea.
All Guineans can do for now is to sit and wait anxiously for the Supreme Court’s ruling. But with Condé’s likely accession to power, Guinea must prepare itself for a possible ethnic strife and military conflict, further undermining the country’s hope for a new era of democratic, civilian government. Condé supporters will continue to celebrate in the streets.
But with such brutal state-perpetrated violence against the Peul, one may question the new government’s legitimacy and commitment to civil and human rights.
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