Progression or Digression: Presidential Elections in the Ivory Coast

In September 2002, civil war broke out in one of the world’s leading coco-producing countries, the Ivory Coast. Although this brutal war lasted only two years, the strife generated from this period remains prominent in t the Ivory Coast. On Thursday November 3^rd, 2010 around 80% of Ivoirians voted for their preferred presidential candidates in the country’s primary elections. This was the first election in the Ivory Coast for six years, and its third democratic election since independence. However, the next few weeks are critical for the Ivory Coast, as the country is due to have a run-off election on November 28^th. At this time, Ivoirians will have to decide whether they want t reunification, or to digress back into a conflicted and divided state.

After the first round of voting, incumbent president Laurent Gbagbo, emerged as the electoral leader with 38% of the vote. His main competitor, former prime minister, Alassane Ouattara, accumulated a solid 32% of the vote. In last place, and consequently eliminated, Aime Henri Konan Bedi, received 25% of the vote. Even though Gbagbo is the most popular candidate, the alliance between Ouattara and Bedie may cost him the election, as many Bedie supporters could vote for Ouattara. All three candidates have controversial experiences in Ivorian politics and all were visible political actors during the Civil War. As a result, the behavior of the candidates and their constituents in the upcoming election will be important to the future stability of the country.

Incumbent President Laurent Gbagbo has the most to lose in this election. Gbagbo has been president since 2002 and he is eager to maintain his regime. In 2004, Gbagbo issued a “new citizenship” provision for candidates that directly targeted and eventually barred Alassane Ouattara from the last few elections. Most recently, Gbagbo has recalled the Ivorian envoy to Senegal after Ouattara met for several hours behind “closed doors” with President Abdoulaye Wade of Senegal. Gbagbo claims that Ouattara and Wade were plotting against his government. Supporters of Gbagbo argue that he is right to be suspicious of his opponents, especially Ouattara. His political career has been largely consumed by violence, coups, and peace agreements. Gbagbo came into office after a military coup in 1999. Rebel and coup leader, Robert Gui, assumed control right after the coup, but was surprisingly ousted by Gbagbo in the 2000 election. Two years into power, Gbagbo faced a failed coup coup, which eventually ignited the Ivorian Civil War. During the war, Gbagbo represented the government-held south, a largely Christian and relatively prosperous area, while the opposition controlled the Muslim-majority north. In March 2007 Gbagbo’s government made a peace agreement with the rebels, which resulted in Gbagbo appointment of Guillaume Soro, rebel leader, as prime minister. Although, this symbolic political appointment was successful, most residents of the north still want a leader of their own. .

Former Prime Minister and lead oppositional candidate, Alassane Ouattara, is the most highly favored candidate from the restive north. From 1968 to 1973 Ouattara was an economist for the International Monetary Fund and from 1973-1975 he was the Charge de Mission of the Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO) West African States (BCEAO). In 1990 Ouattara became Prime Minster under Felix Houphouet-Boigny, the Ivory Coast’s first and highly acclaimed president. Ouattara was prohibited from running in the elections of 1995 and 2000, because he was accused of being from Burkino Faso, and therefore not a real Ivorian citizen. This “descent” issue actually bolsters Ouattara’s popularity in the north, as many people in that region have migrated from neighboring countries, especially impoverished Burkino Faso. The rebellion from the north derived from ethnic discrimination against these African “foreigners”. Essentially, the electoral code against Alassane Outtara was the catalyst for the rebellion. If Ouattara is elected, he claims he will “continue on the path of reconciliation and form a government composed of diverse political forces and civil society members". More importantly, if elected it will provoke a great sigh of relief for the north. With Aime Henri Konan Bedie, former Ivorian president who was overthrown by the 1999 military coup, eliminated from the second election round, it will be interesting to see what way the country will turn. With Ouattara and Gbagbo representing a largely divided and polarized population, some speculate about a possible uprising. The UN Security Council has repeatedly urged all candidates to accept election results and they called on “supporters of the candidates to refrain from any provocation or recourse to violence”.

If Ivoirians can weather this election, then they can start focusing on improving the economy and the well being of its citizens. In the 1960s and 1970s Ivory Coast was the economic hub of West Africa. They have the potential to regain this legacy, but will continue to be unsuccessful if the social ills, corruption, and general discontent amongst its citizens are not addressed. Whether Ouattara or Gbagbo wins, the skeptical actions of their political pasts cannot dictate their future.

{Note: Elections were held on November 28^th, Ouattara successfully gained Bedi’s votes and officially won. However President Gbago still remains in power. Gbago and his supporters insist the results are false. Although, Ivory Coast election commission and the United Nations recognized the victory of Alassane Ouattara, Ivory Coast's Constitutional Council has the final word on the results. The international community is concerned for the well being of the Ivory Coast.}