What does it take for a country to be “officially” European? Is it primarily the location on a map, culture, or economics that matter? Turkey’s Prime Minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, expressed his opinions in late October on this very issue. He said that “disappointment” was too mild a word to capture the Turkish reaction to the lack of progress in Turkey’s proposed accession to the European Union. As he noted, negotiations never moved so slowly for other EU candidates.[1]
We must look at history and geography to explain both why Turkey seeks admission into the EU and why, despite formally applying almost 25 years ago, prospects for membership seem more doubtful than ever.
Controversies persist over whether Turkey is geographically in Europe. The traditional division places only small portion of northwestern Turkey, known as Thrace, in the continent of Europe. Thrace contains only about three percent of the country’s area, but is home to ten percent of its population. The rest of Turkey’s land and population is in Anatolia, which is conventionally classified as part of Asia, traditionally called Asia Minor.
Many observers dispute the relevance of conventional continental boundaries. Greek journalist Machalis Kastigeras argues that Europe’s borders, “were never clearly defined…there is de Gaulle’s vision of Europe from the Atlantic to the Urals, the Crusaders’ idea of a Catholic Europe, the Christian Europe of the Holy Alliance, Hitler’s New Europe, and the New Europe of the enlargement planners in Brussels.” Indeed, for hundreds of years the Ottomans were key players in shaping Europe. European Union member-state Cyprus, moreover, lies outside of Europe’s official borders, undermining the argument that location alone precludes Turkish membership.
The EU’s decision on Turkey’s proposed ascension goes beyond maps and history. Demographics and culture are also part of the story. Tensions between traditionally Christian Europeans and Muslims have risen in recent years, linked to terrorist attacks, wars, and migration; the growing popularity of laws restricting religious dress in public indicate such intercultural stress. As nearly all Turkish citizens are Muslims, EU accession would lead to a “more Muslim Europe.” Migration from Turkey to western and central Europe would almost certainly increase. Turkey would also gain significant voting power in the EU, as it would have the union’s second largest population.
Nevertheless, Turkey’s demographic characteristics could prove beneficial to the European project. Turkey was founded on principles of secularism, which align well with those of Western Europe. Indeed, a European Turkey could provide a compelling model for other Muslim countries. Second, Turkey’s relatively young population would provide a welcome antidote to Western Europe’s elevated dependency ratios and worrying pension costs.
Geo-strategic reasoning also calls for the EU to admit Turkey. Turkey’s location gives it an essential role in securing east-west energy transportation routes. Key Turkish oil pipelines take Caspian oil to Western Europe. Moreover, the proposed Nabucco (Turkey-Austria) natural gas pipeline would lessen European dependence on Russian energy (see chart below proposed Nabucco pipeline). In the past, Turkey has threatened to suspend the project if the EU continues to drag its feet o
n membership talks.
Still, there would be geo-strategic costs to admitting Turkey to the EU as well. Turkey still refuses to recognize Cyprus, an EU member. Moreover, a questionable human rights record towards Kurds has raised concerns on whether Turkey’s values and laws are consistent with those in Western Europe. Indeed, many EU officials believe Turkey’s Article 301 of its penal code, which makes it illegal to publically insult the Turkish nation,” to be in direct conflict with European free speech norms. Ultimately, the question of whether Turkey is “European” will have more to do with politics than anything else.
[1]http://www.yle.fi/uutiset/news/2010/10/turkish_pm_bitter_about_eu_talks_2075557.html
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